Guest post by Christina Welch, 2025-2026 Sustainability Leadership Fellow and Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources at Colorado State University
Right now, at the beginning of winter on Colorado’s Western Slope, the peach orchards look almost lifeless with rows of low, gnarled trees standing dormant. Yet by early spring, the orchards will be suddenly flush with pink blossoms. What feels desolate in January comes to life as a humming landscape in April, filled with flowers, bees, and the first hint of green leaves that signal another season of fresh Palisade peaches on the way (Figure 1). The Western Slope of Colorado is more than just a scenic stretch of mesas, orchards, hay fields and mountain-fed valleys—it’s one of the state’s most vital agricultural engines.
My research team and I are focused on three valleys on the Western Slope that are known for their diverse agricultural production (Figure 2). Sweet corn, peaches, cherries, apples, barley, wheat, vegetables, beef, and lamb are all major agricultural products from this region. The family farms and ranches in this area are the backbone of rural livelihoods and food systems in a state where 93% of the farms are family owned. (National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2022a). Nationwide since the 1930s, as agricultural productivity and efficiency have increased, the number of family farms has significantly declined (Hoppe, 2014; Economic Research Service, 2023). Throughout Colorado in 1935 there were 63,644 farms and by 2022 that number had decreased to 36,056 farms (National Agricultural Statistics Service 1935; 2022a).
With this information in mind, we are curious about how the producers that are still in business have adapted their operations. Adaptation inherently involves learning and making adjustments to existing behaviors in order for individuals, societies, businesses and organizations to survive (Engle, 2011). Though the concept of adaptation throughout human history is well established, the complexity of the challenges we have devised for ourselves is unprecedented. Within the agricultural sector, in particular, various intertwining wicked problems have emerged (Roche, 2018).
Unfortunately, these wicked problems are not related to the popular novel, Broadway show and recent movie. In our line of work, wicked problems are systems-level issues that have no single, “right” solution and whose complexity traverses sectors and systems (Wade et al., 2020). Part of the wicked problem in this context is the need to continue to support producers who are growing fresh food for our increasing population, maximize efficient water use in an area of water scarcity, support affordable housing and balance the tradeoffs that come with development.
In February 2025, we interviewed 26 producers from family farms who represented a wide range of vegetables, fruit trees and livestock production on the Western Slope. Our team is interested in learning more about the variety of challenges these producers are facing, how they are adapting, and what they need in terms of support to continue adapting. One of the most common challenges we heard about is the ongoing pressure of development and how this is rapidly transforming the area from rural to urban (Welch et al., 2025). To dive deeper, we used a map making software (ArcGIS Pro) to analyze the change in land use over time.
Through this analysis we found that overwhelmingly, the largest land cover change in the study areas was land developed. We then quantified the number of acres developed between 1985 and 2023. Figure 3 shows within the Grand Valley, the acres of land that in 1985 were either agricultural land or grassland and have since been developed for housing or commercial purposes. It is reasonable to believe much of the development is for housing because between 2000 and 2023 the population of Grand Junction has grown by 56% (Neilsberg, 2024). Results show that in the Grand Valley alone, over 10,000 acres of agricultural land has been developed. In all, the analysis found that the total land (agricultural and grassland) that has been developed is 37,028 acres across all three valleys. This spatial analysis upholds the narrative producers provided in the interviews that agricultural land and family farms are being replaced by housing developments around them.
The water to support new development must come from an existing water right. Development in the Grand Valley is possible because producers have sold agricultural water rights to developers and that right was transferred in water court to a municipal use. This trend is common throughout Colorado. While the rate has slowed a bit in recent years, experts predict that by 2050, Colorado will lose up to 700,000 additional acres of agricultural land with the water from irrigated farmland transferred to meet municipal or industrial demands (SWSI, 2010).
For a 5th generation farmer or rancher who has a legacy to uphold, selling farm and water rights is an emotionally difficult decision. Producers are deeply connected to the land and farming as a way of life, identity and livelihood. Research shows that for producers, losing their farm or ranch can be as stressful as the death of a parent or a divorce (Rosmann, 2010). An additional layer to this challenging narrative is the aging generation of producers. In the United States, nearly 45% of the farming population is at or above retirement age (National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2022b). If a producer doesn’t have someone to take over the farm, or doesn’t have robust retirement savings, or health care benefits, a logical option is to sell their assets to retire.
Our findings highlight that the adaptation of producers on the Western Slope can be distilled down to individuals making day-to-day decisions as they work to figure out what is best for their families and their livelihoods. The choices made by producers and by us, as consumers, will collectively dictate how we adapt to these wicked problems as a society. As with many of our issues, tackling this challenge will require flexible, adaptive management to ensure a food and water secure future.
Here’s a few resources if you are interested in learning more about Colorado farming.
- Colorado Department of Agriculture, Colorado Proud
- CSU researchers investigating agriculture and water research
- The Colorado Cattleman’s Agricultural Land Trust working on conserving agricultural land
This work was made possible with support from Josh Reyling and the CSU GeoSpatial Centroid. All data were found through the ESRI Living Atlas, with the exception of the annual USGS LULC datasets found here: https://www.mrlc.gov/. All map data files were projected into the coordinate system NAD 1983 UTM Zone 13N to minimize distortion and maximize accuracy of acreage calculations.
Photo Credit: Adobe Stock 471936950
References
Economic Research Service. (2023, November 30). Farming and Farm Income. United States Department of Agriculture. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/farming-and-farm-income/
Engle, N. L. (2011). Adaptive capacity and its assessment. Global environmental change, 21(2), 647-656.
Hoppe, R. A. (2014). Structure and finances of US farms: Family farm report. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. EIB-132.
National Agricultural Statistics Service (2022a). Census of Agriculture, Colorado State Profile. United States Department of Agriculture. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2022/Online_Resources/County_Profiles/Colorado/cp99008.pdf
National Agricultural Statistics Service (2022b). National Census. United States Department of Agriculture. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2022/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/
National Agricultural Statistics Service (1935). Census of Agriculture. Colorado State Profile. United States Department of Agriculture. https://www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus/archive/files/1935-Colorado-COUNTY_TABLES-1514-Table-01.pdf
Neilsberg. (2024). Grand Junction, CO Population by Year – 2024 Update https://www.neilsberg.com/insights/grand-junction-co-population-by-year/
Roche, L. M. (2021). Grand challenges and transformative solutions for rangeland social-ecological systems–emphasizing the human dimensions. Rangelands, 43(4), 151-158.
Rosmann, M. R. (2010). The agrarian imperative. Journal of Agromedicine, 15:71–75, 2010. DOI: 10.1080/10599241003630585
SWSI (Statewide Water Supply Initiative). (2011). State of Colorado 2050 Municipal and Industrial Water Use Projections. Colorado Water Conservation Board. Camp, Dresser & McKee, Harvey Economics. https://dnrftp.state.co.us/CWCB/SWSI%202010%20-%20Archived/SWSI2010-FullReport_Final.pdf
Wade, AA, et al. 2020. Developing leaders to tackle wicked problems at the nexus of food, energy, and water systems. Elem Sci Anth, 8: 11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.407
Welch, C., Teel, T., & Haley, D. (2025). Final Report for the project titled “Producer led Solutions to Overcoming Adaptation Barriers for Colorado Agriculture.” Fort Collins, CO. Colorado State University, Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources.